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Population Projections

Map of Cumbria

It can be useful to project how Cumbria's population might look in the future in order to understand potential housing needs and demand for council services.

Standard population projection methods project forward past trends into the future. Therefore, population projections must be used with caution as they are simply a guide to what might happen if past trends continue into the future.

Please contact us if you are unsure about using population projections or if you need any further information.

Office for National Statistics - 2014-Based Subnational Population Projections

Every two years the Office for National Statistics (ONS) produces long-term population projections for local authorities in England; known as the ‘Subnational Population Projections (SNPPs)’. The SNPPs project what the population of each local authority might look like over the next 25 years if recent demographic trends continue.

In May 2016 the ONS released the 2014-Based SNPPs. The 2014-Based SNPPs took the population of each local authority at mid-2014 as their starting point. These populations were then projected forward, a year at a time, to 2039; using trends observed in relation to births, deaths and migration in each local authority over the five years to 2014.

POPGROUP - Population & Housing Projections

While the ONS projections provide a useful baseline scenario, they do not offer users the flexibility to adjust or add any further assumptions about what may happen in the future, for example: the implications of local planning restrictions/developments; decline/growth of the local economy; or, longer / shorter term trends in birth, death and migration rates. However, we know that these local factors can make a real difference to what populations might look like in the long-term. 

To address this issue, we use the 'POPGROUP Demographic Forecasting Software', produced by the University of Manchester, to create our own scenarios which incorporate various localised assumptions into projections.

The links below present the latest POPGROUP projections that we have produced for Cumbria and districts; these were published in Spring 2017 and took the population of each local authority at mid-2015 as their starting point. These populations were then projected forward, a year at a time; using trends observed in relation to births, deaths, migration, employment and housing over the five to 10 years to 2015.


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